Passage One
Questions 52 to 56 are based on the following passage.
It’s a cliché(陈词滥调)—but true—that a huge obstacle to a stronger economic recovery is the lack of confidence in a strong recovery. If consumers and businesses were more confident, they would be spending, hiring and lending more freely. Pessimism and slow growth become a vicious cycle (恶性循环).
Battered confidence most obviously reflects the severity and shock of the financial collapse and the ensuing recession, including the devastating housing collapse. But there’s another, less appreciated cause, disillusion (觉醒) with modern economics.
Probably without realizing it, most Americans had accepted the fundamental promises of contemporary economics. These were. First, we know enough to pr another Great Depression; second, although we can’t pr every recession, we know enough to ensure sustained and, for the most part, strong recoveries. These propositions, supported by most economists, had worked themselves into society’s belief structure.
Embracing them does not pr economic disappointments, setbacks, worries or risks. But for most people most of the time, it does stop economic disaster. People felt protected. If you stop believing them, then you act differently. You begin shielding yourself, as best you can, against circumstances and ers that you can’t foresee but that you fear are there.
Economic models, based on past relationships and assumptions, don’t capture the shift, which embodies new assumptions and beliefs. Of course, most Americans have not consciously rejected the promises of modern economics. Neither did they consciously embrace them before. Judgments were seat-of-the-pants. People simply compared the promises against the evidence. Since the 1980s, recessions had been brief and mild; modern economics had ensured crude stability. Now, that no longer applies.
It’s not that economics achieved nothing. The emergency measures thrown at the cr in many countries— exceptionally low interest rates, "stimulus" programs of extra spending and tax cuts—probably stopped another Depression. But it’s also true that there’s now no consensus among economists as to how to strengthen the recovery. Economists act as if they understand more than they do and presume that their policies have benefits more predictable than they actually are. It’s worth remembering that the recovery’s present slowdown is occurring despite measures taken to speed it up.
So modern economics has been oversold, and the public is now disbelieving. The disillusion feeds stubbornly low confidence. Because psychology is so important, the good news is that if the economy surprises on the upside, the boost to confidence could accelerate the recovery. The bad news is that if the recovery continues to disappoint, the discrediting of mainstream economic thinking will grow. The resulting intellectual void will bring forth new ideas. Some may be good, but others — though superficially appealing — will be fringe or lunatic(疯狂的).
Passage OneQuestions 52 to 56 are based on the following passage.What may happen if people still feel disappointed in the recovery in future