Many of the most damaging and life threatening types of weather--torrential rains, severe thunderstorms, and tornadoes--begin quickly, strike suddenly, and disappear rapidly, destroying small regions while leaving neighboring areas untouched. Such as a tornado struck the northeastern section of Edmonton, Alberta, in July 1987. Total damages from the tornado exceeded ＄250 million, the highest ever for any Canadian storm.
Conventional computer models of the atmosphere have limited value in predicting short lived local storms like the Edmonton tornado, because the available weather data are generally not detailed enough to allow computers to study carefully the subtle atmospheric changes that come before these storms. In most nations, for example, weather-balloon observations are taken just once every twelve hours at locations typically separated by hundreds of miles. With such limited data, conventional forecasting models do a much better job predicting general weather conditions over large regions than they do forecasting specific local s.
Until recently, the observation intensive approach needed for accurate, very short-range forecasts, or "Nowcasts", was not feasible. The cost of equipping and operating many thousands of conventional weather stations was extremely high, and the difficulties involved in rapidly collecting and processing the raw weather data from such a network were hard to overcome. Fortunately, scientific and technological advances have overcome most of these problems. Radar systems, automated weather instruments, and satellites are all capable of detailed, nearly continuous observation over large regions at a relatively low cost. Communications satellites can transmit data around the world cheaply and instantaneously, and modem computers can quickly compile and yze this large volume of weather reformation. Meteorologists (气象学者) and computer scientists now work together to design computer programs and video equipment capable of transforming raw weather data into words, symbols, and vivid graphic displays that forecasters can interpret easily and quickly. As meteorologists have begun using these new technologies in weather forecasting offices, Nowcasting is becoming a reality.
Why do conventional models of the atmosphere fail to predict such a short-lived tornado